The question in Sunday’s parliamentary election in Africa’s second-most-populous country is not who will win, but what happens afterwards. Ethiopia’s ruling EPRDF controls much of the state and has overseen impressive economic growth of around 10% a year. Still, many voters hope the election will herald a shift to a new generation of party leaders. Mourning for Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s overlord and the architect of its recent economic success, who died in 2012, is now definitively over; younger and perhaps more reform-minded politicians are seeking power. Once the party has been assured of a new mandate, however crookedly won, it might have the guts to try further reforms. Even that is a long shot. Many insiders distrust markets. Yet few other countries in Africa have greater potential for foreign investors, given Ethiopia’s large population of 90m and its disciplined and sophisticated (if highly repressive) government.
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